On the evening of April 16, the US Department of Commerce issued an export ban on ZTE. Until March 13, 2025, US companies will be banned from selling parts, goods, software and technology to ZTE. Sudden bans have caused a high degree of concern and discussion in the country. While analyzing the US ban on sales, the market is also analyzing the possibility of domestic substitution of products forbidden. Let's take a look at the related content with the mobile phone portable Xiaobian.
As one of the most widely used fields of mobile phones, the US’s attack on ZTE has also cast a shadow over the industry. Everyone is asking: If the trade war is aimed at not only the individual ZTE enterprises but the entire mobile phone industry, what impact will it have on the mobile phone industry?
In response to this problem, Chun Li also consulted many veterans in the industry. Among them, a veteran person impressed me. He believes that the chips required by many mobile phones are firmly controlled by the United States, except for the processor. There are also RF chips including amplifiers, duplexers and filters. Since leaving the United States, China has not been able to manufacture a mobile phone.
Is the situation so terrible? In order to answer this question, Chunli specializes in these chip products, researches and organizes the suppliers of several major domestic brands, in order to understand the dependence of domestic brands on US chip imports.
The global smartphone processor, the United States supplies nearly 60%. Speaking of chips, many people will think of the processor for the first time, so let's look at the processor first. According to the data from the Rising Sun Data Monitoring, last year, the suppliers of smart phone processor chips mainly came from the United States, Taiwan, and China. Among them, the supply in the United States accounted for nearly 60%. Xiaomi's reliance on Qualcomm's processor is more than 90%.
Chart 1 Global smartphone processor regional supply ratio in 2017
From the current point of view, Huawei may be slightly more optimistic. According to the statistics of the Rising Sun Big Data, last year, Huawei's self-made chip ratio was close to 70%, and its dependence on Qualcomm was low, only about 16%.
Chart 2 2017 Huawei smartphone CPU source statistics
Domestic mobile phone amplifiers rely heavily on the United States, and OPPO suppliers are over 60% from the United States. According to the research data of the Rising Sun big data market, 50% to 80% of the amplifier suppliers of domestic major mobile phones are from the United States. Among them, OPPO mobile phone amplifier main suppliers include: SKYWORKS, QORVO, INFINEON, NXP, QUALCOMM, MURATA. The United States accounts for the vast majority, accounting for more than 60%.
Chart 3 OPPO Smartphone Amplifier Main Supplier
The filter is beautiful in Japan, Japan and Korea, and the vivo is subject to Japanese suppliers. Judging from the research of the Rising Sun big data market, in the filter market, the US supplier is weaker, and Japan and South Korea are three-legged. The specific competition depends on different brands. Vivo filter manufacturers are mainly Japanese suppliers, accounting for about 90%, of which Murata is its main supplier.
Chart 4 main supplier of vivo filter
The duplexer Japanese supplier is more competitive, and Xiaomi is highly dependent on Japanese suppliers. Judging from the research situation of several domestic brands, the suppliers of mobile duplexers are firmly occupied by Japanese manufacturers, and the influence of US suppliers is weak. Judging from the research of the Rising Sun Data Market, the supplier of Xiaomi mobile duplexer is mainly from Japan. ACX is its main supplier, accounting for more than 70%. The impact of American supplier AVAGO is very small.
Chart 5 Xiaomi duplexer main supplier
From the above data and analysis, we can see that although there are many enterprises in China that produce related RF chip products, the current domestic terminal brands, especially several big brands, still rely on imports. US suppliers have a large voice in mobile processor and amplifiers, and they have strong control, and their influence in the filter and duplexer market is much weaker.
Regardless of whether it is a US supplier or a Japanese supplier, it has to be said that domestic brands are highly dependent on imports in terms of chips. Although it is a bit exaggerated to say that China is not able to make a mobile phone, it is not alarmist.
Because the mobile phone is a very complicated product, involving many parts and components, and lacking any one of them, it is impossible to complete the mobile phone manufacturing. Take the RF chip, on the one hand, the mobile phone involves a lot of RF chips, although domestic enterprises can provide some materials, but several materials can not afford the system.
In addition, many of the materials that are subdivided into RF are exclusive. Different mobile phones will involve different frequency bands and different combinations, and missing one material will not work. There may also be incompatibility issues between materials. Chun Li learned from senior industry engineers that RF chips need at least one year from redesign to availability if they need to find alternative materials. So in summary, if the trade war is really further upgraded, the impact on the mobile phone industry chain will be great in the short term.
Some people may have retorted that the United States has left China and cannot make a mobile phone. This sentence is also correct to some extent. After several years of development, China has formed an industrial chain cluster that is competitive with brand and manufacturing. 80% of the world's mobile phones are assembled in China, including Apple mobile phones. Many midstream module products are also mainly supplied by domestic enterprises. Including screens, cameras, etc.
However, from the alternative analysis, we will find that the manufacturing and module integration required by American mobile phone brands can be more easily replaced by Chinese brands. I will not talk about it here.
As one of the representatives of the high-tech industry, the mobile phone industry has gradually emerged as a leading global brand. At the same time, it has a huge domestic market demand advantage. However, due to the lack of core technologies such as chips, it has been caught in the throat.
Perhaps ZTE’s incident can cause introspection in the industrial chain, which is a good thing. It has sounded a wake-up call for Chinese companies: there is no right to speak without core technology. The strength of science and technology can enable enterprises to maintain a strong driving force for development, so that China can stand in the forest of the world nation.
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