The rare earth market has been “excessively prosperous”? 2013 or current supply exceeds demand

In 2013, will the global rare earth market exceed supply? Goldman Sachs analysts predicted in a recent report that as Western companies set up new mines to compete with Chinese companies that currently dominate the market, by 2013, rare earths may be oversupplied. According to the "Wall Street Journal" reported on the 9th, this view quickly won the recognition of some market participants, that the rare earth market has been "excessive prosperity." Of course, there are also many people who hold the opposite view. Curtis, the chief executive of Australian rare earth miner Linus, even predicted that “China is about to become a net importer of rare earths”. At present, China supplies about 90% of the world's rare earths.

Goldman Sachs analyst Sans Wood predicted in this report that the global rare earth supply will have the biggest gap in history this year, possibly reaching 1.8734 million tons, equivalent to 13.2% of demand, but the gap will continue to shrink until 2013. In the case of oversupply, in 2014, the excess will reach 5,860 tons, equivalent to 3.2% of the expected demand. He also believes that the price of rare earth is approaching the peak and then there will be a downward trend.

Rare earth is a combination of 17 elements. Global rare earth prices have quadrupled last year and have doubled in the first four months of this year. Among them, the rare earth mine “钕” used to manufacture products such as earphones and hybrid electric vehicles has risen sharply from about US$42 per kilogram a year ago to more than US$283. The key raw material for the manufacture of missiles, "钐", also soared from $18.50 per kilogram last year to more than $146 per kilogram.

Right now, Goldman Sachs said that the "supply exceeds demand" of rare earths, many market participants agreed. According to the "Wall Street Journal" reported on the 9th, "these people think that the current rare earth market is excessively prosperous." The report quoted a rare earth trader in Europe as saying that for rare earth elements such as lanthanum and cerium, there will certainly be a situation of oversupply. Reasons for supporting this view include: the price is too high, people will immediately start looking for alternatives; as more rare earth mines are restored, supply will increase significantly.

At present, California is increasing the rare earth mining in a large scale. The US rare earth production is expected to increase from 3% to 4% in the world to 12% in 2012. Japan's Hitachi Metals Co., Ltd. also plans to expand rare earth mining, and South Korea has reached an agreement with Myanmar to jointly develop rare earth resources in Myanmar.

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