In order to promote the development of the new energy automobile industry, the government has introduced a number of policies, including subsidies, recommended catalogues, etc., and now has introduced a point system, do not know what kind of fluctuations will be caused in the automotive industry? Let's take a look at the relevant content.
This article refers to the address: http://
Where will the point system push the future of new energy vehicles?
Recently, the Legislative Affairs Office of the State Council issued the “Parallel Management Measures for the Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises and New Energy Vehicles (Consultation Draft)†(hereinafter referred to as the “Double Points Management Measuresâ€). Ten months ago, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology hanged the "Interim Measures for the Parallel Management of Enterprise Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points", and proposed "parallel" management of enterprise average fuel consumption (CAFC) and new energy vehicle points (NEV). The mechanism, that is, the double point system.
In the 2017 version of the "Double Points Management Method" removed the temporary 2 words, which means that the implementation of the policy will become a long-term established policy. The "Double Points Management Method" continues to point out two core messages:
First, the negative fuel consumption and the negative points of new energy vehicles must be offset against the positive points of new energy vehicles. However, the positive points of new energy vehicles are only allowed to trade, and no new year is allowed to carry forward.
The second is that the “Double Points Management Measures†will be implemented in 2018. In the three years from 2018 to 2020, in addition to the small-scale enterprises that produce or import less than 2,000 vehicles per year, the proportions of new energy vehicles in other car companies are separately required. It is 8%, 10% and 12%, and the points after 2020 are separately specified.
Enterprises that fail to meet the points and fail to pay the points will face penalties for suspension of declaration of the car catalogue and suspension of production or import of some traditional car models. As can be seen from the policy terms, all the points can be met by producing new energy vehicles or purchasing new energy points from other car companies.
The purpose of the "Double Points Management Method" is obvious. It promotes the development of energy-saving technologies for traditional fuel vehicles through regulatory policies and encourages car companies to produce new energy vehicles. So why is the "Double Points Management Method" repeatedly causing an uproar in the Chinese auto market? Xiaobian takes you to see what kind of exam this is.
How is the score calculated?
Since 2009, the state and local governments have vigorously supported the development of the new energy automobile industry and introduced a series of policies to encourage the production and use of new energy vehicles. With the high financial subsidies of the national and local “1+1†model, the new energy automobile industry has developed rapidly. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in 2016, new energy vehicles produced 517,000 vehicles and sold 507,000 vehicles, an increase of 51.7% and 53% respectively over the same period of the previous year.
However, under the financial subsidies, the phenomenon of deception of car companies has emerged one after another. On September 8, 2016, the Ministry of Finance listed five cases of new energy vehicle manufacturers such as Suzhou Jim West Bus Manufacturing Co., Ltd., involving a subsidy of 1.01 billion yuan. Individual companies have been disqualified from vehicle production. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Double Points Management Method (Draft for Comment)" for the first time. The core content is to establish an inter-enterprise trading system for fuel consumption points and new energy points, so that financial subsidies will fall back and industrial competition will be used to strengthen market competition.
At the end of 2016, the “Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles†issued by the four ministries and commissions, including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Science and Technology, clarified that energy vehicle subsidies will declining by 20% year by year until 2020.
Then, after the subsidy ebbs, how can the new energy auto industry continue to do so? At this time, the new energy credit policy came into being.
The so-called "double points" refers to fuel consumption points and new energy vehicle points. The two main points of accounting are passenger car companies. Among them, the fuel consumption score is calculated by the average fuel consumption of the enterprise and the target value of the average fuel consumption of the enterprise; the new energy vehicle mileage is calculated based on the mileage of the vehicle, the production and import quantity of the new energy vehicle.
If the actual value of the fuel consumption of the enterprise is lower than the standard value, a positive integral will be generated, otherwise a negative integral will be generated. The actual value of the new energy vehicle integral is greater than the target value, which produces a positive integral, and vice versa.
Fuel consumption positive points allow for carry-over and transfer between affiliates, but new energy vehicles are only allowed to trade freely and cannot be carried forward. At the same time, negative fuel consumption points and new energy negative points must be balanced within the reporting year, that is, the negative points generated in the previous year must be compensated for zero.
The “subsidy retreat + points system†is the core of the “13th Five-Year Plan†new energy vehicle policy and a key measure for the marketization of new energy vehicles. The "Double Points Management Method" actually transforms the model that was completely subsidized by the government into a model of government subsidy plus market competition. The key to this is the purchase of new energy points between car companies.
The industry believes that this is a major positive for the new energy auto industry. This means that if traditional car companies do not develop new energy vehicles, even if they are energy-saving retrofits for high-fuel-consumption products and obtain positive fuel consumption points, they must still purchase new energy points from other car companies to offset negative points, and subsidize new energy in disguise. Automotive industry. Under this circumstance, companies with better development of new energy vehicles can make money by selling excess points, while those that are underdeveloped will face losses such as spending money to buy points and even stopping fuel production. The policy is strong and unprecedented.
Industry shuffling soon
The formal implementation of the double-point system has only been half a year's buffer time, and the auto market will have a "poor and rich" situation. Under the pressure of policy, there are several happy families.
The domestic car enterprises represented by BYD have made an early effort in the field of new energy vehicles. According to data from the Federation, the cumulative sales of BYD last year was 470,000, of which 370,000 were fuel vehicles and 100,000 were new energy vehicles. According to the data of the Yangtze River Securities Research Institute, if the calculation of the proportion of new energy points is 8%, BYD's 2016 data can get a positive score of about 200,000 points.
However, the Great Wall Motor, which is dominated by high-fuel consumption SUVs, was hit hard. After the release of the draft opinion on Tuesday, the stock price fell, falling for three consecutive trading days, a drop of 5%. As the Great Wall Motor does not have the output of new energy vehicles as a support, the new energy negative points under the calculation exceed 50,000 points.
Wang Binggang, head of the National 863 Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicles Major Project Supervision Consulting Group, said in an interview with the media: "With the gradual landing of the points policy, some car companies should pay for the previous strategic decisions. At present, Great Wall Motors is There is no layout on pure electric or plug-in hybrid models, and it will become the main purchaser in the future new energy credit market."
A broader range of traditional giants such as Toyota, Volkswagen, and General Motors are more cautious in the new energy vehicle business. According to data from Changjiang Securities, Toyota, GM, Volkswagen and other car companies have calculated negative energy points of more than 50,000.
Taking the German car companies such as Volkswagen as an example, the game between enterprises and the government has continued. In Germany's view, China's new energy vehicle market has been monopolized by local auto brands in the past two years. It is impossible for German automakers who have begun to deploy electric vehicles in China to meet the above requirements within the stipulated time. The double-point system has even risen to become an important part of China-Israel cooperation in electric vehicle cooperation negotiations. In the past year, the outside world has been saying that the new energy credit policy of German cars will be delayed for one year, but it was not until the release of this consultation draft finally ended the imagination of policy relaxation.