The latest report from Ovum shows that global communications operator capital spending increased significantly in the first half of 2018, in line with Ovum's five-year forecast. Ovum had previously forecast that investment would increase in 2018 after three years of roughly flat investment beginning in 2014. Ovum tracks the quarterly reports of capital expenditure data from fixed, mobile, internet and carrier-neutral communication providers.
Mobile operator capex fell by 19% between 2014 and 2017, but the mobile sector has been a prominent volatility factor this year, rising 26% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018, indicating positive capex in late 2017. After the inflection point, growth is accelerating. Ovum noted that 5G equipment, Massive MIMO and edge computing are some of the factors driving the increase in spending. While the mobile space has been considered relatively low cost to launch services in the past, the capital intensity (capex/revenue) of mobile and fixed services is converging at around 19%, up from 16% in Q2 2017 The capital intensity ratio showed a sharp rise in the past year.
The absolute value of fixed-line communication operators' capital expenditures was stable over the period, with fixed service capital intensity decreasing slightly due to a slight increase in fixed service revenue. Fiber optic networks, especially ultra-high-speed variant fiber optic networks, have become a growing concern for many governments.
The fastest-growing investors remain Internet content providers, as well as tower and data center companies. Facebook and Tencent led the way with quarterly capex growth of 140% and 135%, respectively. Much of this spending was on new data center construction, but growth was also fueled by large acquisitions of new offices (which may be seen as one-time expenses), investments in niche technologies, and product portfolio development.
Upin Dattani, chief financial analyst at Ovum, said that if investment continues to follow this path, the overall capital expenditure of communication operators will indeed increase at a certain rate, and may even exceed Ovum's full-year 2018 growth of 5.7% to 5.7%. $421 billion forecast. Ovum will continue to focus on capital expenditures in the fourth quarter (typically the largest quarter for booked investments) and the January-March 2019 earnings report to determine how much of the investment will be needed to drive revenue growth or continue the business A precursor to costs.
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