The economic crisis is brewing a major breakthrough in science and technology, and China, which is in the third economic boom, is expected to become the core of the global semiconductor industry by 2019.
Last year, Jiang Shoulei, secretary-general of the Shanghai IC Industry Association, said that the launch of Huali Microelectronics' 12-inch production project is expected to become a new round of development for China's semiconductor industry.
Not long ago, Xu Juyan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said in Wuxi that although the global semiconductor industry recovered in 2009, the overall situation is still “Great Recessionâ€. China’s growth rate was the highest before 2007, but it also experienced the fastest decline after the crisis.
However, despite this, he issued a forecast that China is expected to dominate the global semiconductor industry in 2019.
It started to heat up again?
As early as 9 days, Shandong Province, regarded by a local semiconductor company executive as the last piece of "fat" in mainland China, finally ushered in a happy day: an 8-inch semiconductor factory in the Dongying Economic Development Zone of the province was held The capping ceremony.
This is a semiconductor company called "Zhonglian International", which is known as the "leading project" of the electronic information industry of Dongying Economic Development Zone. The capping of the main plant marks that the project has been transferred from the construction of the plant to the stage of installation of electromechanical equipment.
According to sources from SMIC, after the completion of the SMIC Shenzhen 8-inch/12-inch semiconductor factory in December last year, the company is planning to move into 8-inch production line equipment from this year.
The first phase of the project ($1.7 billion), which was announced earlier, is currently under construction.
Turn your eyes to Taiwan. The day before yesterday, global foundry giant TSMC held a ceremony for the fifth stage of its semiconductor factory, the 12th. This is the new phase of an automated plant that TSMC announced in August last year to invest $8 billion. Up to now, it has more than 10 factories in mainland China and Taiwan. And its rival UMC, after winning the Suzhou Hejian, is investing heavily in Shandong Jining to set up a semiconductor lighting base.
This is an investment made directly in the production line. In fact, the expansion plan is more active. Among them, Hua Hong NEC and Grace's 8-inch business have been profitable, and are increasing investment and actively expanding production capacity; Silan Micro has announced a private placement and plans to raise 600 million yuan to expand its semiconductor lighting business.
Capital expenditures in Taiwan are even more crazy. A month ago, TSMC officially revealed that the Songjiang plant is still increasing its production capacity to cope with the continued recovery of the mainland. And Zhang Zhongmou, chairman of the company, said that capital expenditures in 2010 will be “a lot higher†than the $2.7 billion in 2009. Analysts said it is expected to reach $4 billion, the highest in five years.
The spending plans of UMC and ASE in 2010 were respectively $1 billion and $400 million to $500 million. Among them, the former increased by 100% compared with 2009, the latter exceeded 60%, they will mainly be used to purchase new equipment.
It seems to have returned to the fiery situation two years ago.
Mainland China under the new inflection point
Is this a normal investment growth? For example, taking advantage of the low tide of the industry, laying out production, waiting for a real recovery after this year?
Zhang Zhongmou appears to be very optimistic. In the past year, he has repeatedly issued many predictions, and he is more optimistic than once. For example, in June last year, he said that although the worst time has passed, the road to semiconductor recovery is still long; in August, he said that the semiconductor industry is recovering faster than previously expected. It is expected that the output value will be restored in 2011. By 2008 level, one year ahead of previous estimates. The forecast data he announced a month ago is that in 2010, the global semiconductor industry is expected to grow by 16%, more than three times higher than his previous forecast of 5%. In 2011, it is expected to grow again by 8%.
The day before yesterday, Zhang Zhongmou said again that under the financial crisis, terminal consumption "is not as bad as imagined", and the industry's inventory adjustment is "too much", which has caused a strong rebound in the global IT industry. From the current overall environment, not only 2010 The annual meeting is very good and 2011 will be very good.
"This is not only a demand issue, but also a global competition issue." Gu Wenjun, a senior analyst at iSuppli China, said that TSMC, for example, could not have seen the Gloabfoundries in the Middle East building a new plant in the United States, and after the acquisition of the concession, it completely grabbed orders. Yesterday Also went to South Korea to pull customers.
So what about the mainland market? Zhang Zhongmou said that the global market recovery is mainly driven in Asia, especially the mainland. Many of the terminal needs here have not only declined, but have surpassed the past.
Not long ago, a number of domestic securities analysis institutions such as Guolian Securities issued prediction reports. It is mentioned that the semiconductor equipment orders are still at a low level relative to downstream demand and are expected to increase significantly in the first and second quarters of this year.
The day before yesterday, Jiang Shoulei told this newspaper that the positioning of Huali's “state-owned holding and major service to the domestic market†is a signal that it is forming a situation that relies mainly on Chinese design industry orders and market demand. In the past many years, most of the orders for Chinese semiconductor foundries have come from overseas.
"In the second half of 2010, the industry is likely to have significant growth." Xu Juyan said. The academician who served as the chief engineer of the 908 project did not look at the future of the Chinese semiconductor industry.
Xu Juyan said that Moore's Law is no longer the main way to win commercial competition. The technology drive will be driven by the market. Commercial competition will be replaced by ecological competition. The economic crisis is brewing a major breakthrough in science and technology. In China, which is in the third economic take-off, it is expected to Before 2019, it became the core of the global semiconductor industry.
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